The Integrated Resource Plan 2025 and the Role of Gas in South Africa’s Energy Transition
The Integrated Resource Plan 2025 (“the IRP 2025”), published in the Government Gazette on 28 October 2025, sets out South Africa’s latest blueprint for electricity planning. Its core finding is unambiguous: to keep the lights on as ageing coal plants retire, the country needs 6 GW of new gas-fired capacity online by 2030.
The challenge is immediate and unavoidable. Coal still generates more than 75% of the country’s electricity from roughly 42 GW of installed capacity, but the fleet is nearing the end of its life. Eskom plans to decommission 8 GW by 2030 (including Camden, Hendrina, Grootvlei and Arnot) and another 15 GW between 2034 and 2042. This will create a large baseload gap at the very moment renewable generation is scaling up.
Wind and solar PV are the cheapest new-build technologies and will dominate long-term expansion, yet they are variable. Large-scale battery storage is advancing rapidly but will not be available at the necessary scale and cost before the early 2030s. Firm, dispatchable capacity is therefore required in the interim. Gas meets that need: it starts quickly, ramps flexibly, complies fully with South Africa’s Minimum Emission Standards and emits roughly half the CO₂ of coal per unit of electricity generated.
The IRP 2025 therefore positions gas, alongside renewables and storage, as a central element of the mix through 2040. Policy Decision 2 explicitly commits to the 6 GW target by 2030, supported by an existing 3 GW Gas IPP Procurement Programme and further ministerial determinations.
Several developments make the target achievable. Globally, the International Energy Agency’s Gas 2025 Report forecasts an additional 300 billion cubic metres per year of LNG export capacity by 2030, led by the United States and Qatar, which should improve supply security and moderate prices. At the 2025 G20 Africa Energy Investment Forum, Minister Gwede Mantashe confirmed that government is accelerating LNG import terminals (Richards Bay 2027, Matola FSRU mid-2026) and pipeline links from new Orange Basin discoveries to reduce reliance on the single Mozambique pipeline that supplies 90% of imported gas.
The Industrial Gas Users Association – Southern Africa’s Gas Roadmap 2025–2042 warns of a “Gas Cliff” as Mozambique gas ends by 2028 and directs immediate action to secure LNG supply, coordinate infrastructure and strengthen national governance to protect the 8% of GDP and 75 000 jobs tied to gas. The Roadmap sets a course to diversify long-term supply through LNG, domestic fields and West Coast Gas in line with the IRP 2025’s 6 GW target.
Electricity-sector emissions are projected to fall from 168 Mt CO₂ in 2030 to 142 Mt in 2035, supporting the updated Nationally Determined Contribution range of 320–380 Mt nationally by 2035. Gas displaces coal in the short-to-medium term and creates grid space for higher renewable penetration over time.
In South Durban Community Environmental Alliance and Another v Minister of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment and Others (479/2023) [2025] ZASCA 134 (17 September 2025), the Supreme Court of Appeal has reinforced that every gas-to-power development must undergo rigorous environmental assessment, meaningful public participation and full consideration of climate and cumulative impacts under the National Environmental Management Act, 1998. These requirements are now embedded in the implementation process.
In summary, the 6 GW gas commitment is a technically necessary, time-bound measure to maintain reliability during the transition from coal to renewables. The policy framework is settled, global and domestic supply conditions are favourable and the environmental guardrails are clear. Success now depends on disciplined, co-ordinated execution across procurement, infrastructure, financing and regulatory approvals. Delivering this capacity on schedule will secure energy supply, enable deeper decarbonisation and buy the country the stability it needs to build a predominantly renewable electricity system in the decades ahead.